The U.S. trucking industry is facing a perfect storm of challenges in 2025, putting mom-and-pop trucking businesses at risk. Here’s what’s happening, explained simply:

Key Problems

  1. Trump’s Tariffs Backfire
    • New taxes on imported goods from China (tariffs) have slowed trade. Ships and trains carrying goods from China to the U.S. take 30–55 days to arrive, so the economic pain won’t hit immediately. By May 2025, trucking jobs and warehouse work are expected to plummet as fewer goods arrive.
  2. The “Accordion Effect”
    • Imagine squeezing an accordion: a problem in one part of the supply chain (like delayed shipments) takes time to ripple through the system, then hits hard. COVID-era disruptions caused this, and tariffs could make it worse.
  3. Too Many Truckers, Too Little Pay
    • Policy Changes Flooded the Market: Under Biden’s 2021 Trucking Action Plan, states issued more commercial driver’s licenses (CDLs), including to migrants. Some states waived English proficiency rules, leading to a surge in new drivers.
    • Result: More drivers = lower pay. Rates per mile could drop to 2008 crisis levels ($0.80/mile), barely covering fuel and wages. Many small companies can’t survive this.

Why This Matters

  • Small Truckers Are Struggling: Over 90% of trucking companies are small businesses. Many have closed since 2023, and the tariffs could wipe out thousands more.
  • Safety Concerns: Critics argue fast-tracking CDLs for non-English speakers risks road safety.
  • Corporate Welfare?: Taxpayer dollars fund training programs for big trucking companies, which have high turnover rates. Critics say this keeps wages low.

What Experts Say

  • Molson Hart (Supply Chain Expert): “Tariffs will cause a ‘dry-up’ of trucking work by May 2025. Layoffs and product shortages will follow.”
  • Craig Fuller (Freight Analyst): “If rates crash like 2008, drivers will quit, worsening the crisis.”
  • American Truckers United: Urges the government to investigate CDL policies and remove unqualified drivers to protect jobs and safety.

Government Response (Or Lack Thereof)

  • Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy has been silent on trucking issues, focusing instead on space industry rules (like defining “astronauts”).
  • The American Trucking Association now admits oversupply is a problem but hasn’t fixed it.

What’s Next?

  • Immediate Action Needed: Experts demand investigations into Biden’s CDL policies and enforcement of existing safety laws.
  • Warning: Without intervention, a wave of bankruptcies could collapse the industry, replacing small businesses with corporate giants.

In Short: A mix of COVID aftershocks, policy missteps, and new tariffs has left small truckers fighting for survival. The road ahead looks rough unless the government steps in.